The Grain for Green Program Intensifies Trade-Offs between Ecosystem Services in Midwestern Shanxi, China

Ecological engineering is a widely used strategy to address environmental degradation and enhance human well-being. A quantitative assessment of the impacts ecological on ecosystem services (ESs) prerequisite for designing inclusive sustainable programs. In order strengthen national security, Chinese government has implemented world’s largest project since 1999, Grain Green Program (GFGP). We professional model evaluate key ESs in Lvliang City. Scenario analysis was quantify contribution GFGP changes trade-offs/synergy. spatial regression identify main drivers ES trade-offs. found that: (1) From 2000 2018, rates carbon storage (CS), habitat quality (HQ), water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC) were 140.92%, 155.59%, ?454.48%, 92.96%, respectively. compensated negative external pressure CS HQ, significantly improved CS, SC, but at expense WY. (2) The promotes synergistic development also intensifies trade-off relationships between WY SC. (3) Land use change urbanization are positively correlated with WY–CS, WY–HQ, WY–SC trade-offs, while increases NDVI helped alleviate these (4) Geographically weighted explained 90.8%, 94.2%, 88.2% suggest that ESs’ benefits from can be maximized by controlling intensity land change, optimizing urbanization, improving effectiveness afforestation. This general method quantifying impact act as reference future restoration plans decision-making China across world.